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Social Security's Alarming 2026 COLA Forecast Looking ahead to 2026, early forecasts suggest that the Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) could be around 2.2% to 2.3%. This would represent a slight drop from the 2.5% increase seen in 2025 and falls below the long-term average COLA of roughly 2.6%. The final adjustment will be based on inflation data, specifically the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) during the third quarter of 2025. Recent trends show that inflation has cooled slightly, but costs for essentials like groceries, housing, and healthcare remain high. As a result, even with a COLA increase, many retirees may continue to struggle to keep up with everyday expenses. Economic factors, including possible new tariffs on imported goods, could also push consumer prices higher, adding more uncertainty to how far the 2026 COLA will stretch. Social Security recipients should stay informed and prepare for the possibility that benefits might not fully cover rising living costs in 2026. The official COLA announcement will come in October 2025, once all the necessary inflation data is finalized.